Trump's War On Iran ", byDr. Yassin El-Ayouty, Esq"

The assassination of Qasem Solaimani has brought war to America in the Middle East . This negates one of Trump's core promises during his campaign . Namely : That the era preceding his presidency suffered from involvement in costlys wars of choice .
Ironically , the senseless order by Trump to kill Solaimani has graphically exposed Trump as a threat to American security . It was a veritable abrogation of Iraqi sovereignty , and a direct provocation of a more cohesive power --Iran . An iconic Iranian general was eliminated while on Iraqi soil . That was a casus belli ( a cause for war ) by international legal standards .  It also epitomizes Trump's long record of actions devoid of causation . Here the threshold question is " Where is the nexus to American national security " ? . The second is " Why now ? " . The third is  " What Is Next ? " .

   America possesses a huge military arsenal . Granted . But size is no longer an accurate power metric in any strategic context . Especially in the context of Iran . Iran is a mighty regional power . Iran's army is the 14th in world-wide ranking . It is also on the verge of becoming a nuclear power . In 2015 , America together with the other 4 permanent Security Council members , plus Germany , have endorsed a crucial bargain with Iran . No enrichment of uranium for 15 years . But Trump , the self-described " deal maker " , has fulminated against any deal with Obama's name on it . That is regardless of relevance to US national interest . Hence Trump , against the advice of 17 US intelligence agencies , shredded that beneficial multi-state deal . That dangerous void was not remedied by any substitute . People in Trump's circus , especially Secretary of State Pompeo , are wedded to warring on Iran . Claiming that Iran and its proxies endanger regional and world peace . Such views are aided by neither geography nor religion nor history  .

  Just look at the old maps . They refer to Iraq as " Iraq Al-Farisi " { Persian Iraq } . Religiously , Iraq is a shii-majority country . And historically , Iraq is a recent creation . Ruled , under the British from India , then later , under the Ottoman empire , alternately from Basra or Musol . In effect , the Iraqi national texture is of three sectors : A shii south , a sunni north , and a Kurdish , further north . Saddam voiced a wise saying : " After me , Iraq needs seven Saddams !! " . 

  Even the banner of Iraq is a fictitious depiction. Its three stars stand for a 1963 aborted project : Union of three States : Egypt , Iraq , and Syria . And " Allahu Akbar " was scrawled by Saddam on Iraq's banner , but only for a Baathist political reason : Seeking an Islamic veneer of legitimacy . The most stable rule of Iraq was under the Hashemites . Kindred of the Jordanian Hashemites . 

 But this fragile stability was destroyed in 1958 . Nasser , prematurely applauded that Iraqi intifada ; Baghdad sent Taleb Shabeeb to Nasser pleading for unity ; Nasser demanded of Baghdad the abandonment of the West . Baghdad declined . So instead of a Cairo Pact , a pro-American Baghdad pact was established . And Nasserite media went crazy in opposition. 

  Let us not here forget that the greatest political managers in the Arab world of that epoch were : Nasser of Egypt ; Nouri Al-Saeed of Iraq prior to the Iraqi anti-Hashemite rebellion of 1958  ; and Ibn Saud of Saudi Arabia . For they knew well their national priorities . 

  Now compare this complexity to Irani cohesion : A strong central government . Under either the Shah or Khomeini ; control of the Strait of Hormuz ; insulation from meaningless Arab squabbles ; plus easy access to Russia and its Islamic perimeter . 

  Add to that mix , a super Persian civilization going back to 5000 years . As an example : The mathematical term " Algorithm " is a formula created by the Persian genius " Al-Khawaresmi " . So were the poems of Omar Al-Khayyam . So was " One Thousand and One Nights " . So was " Kalilah Wa Demnah " ( a political dialogue among animals ) . A higher form of literature when compared to Machiavelli's " The Prince " .  

  Of course Trump is innocent of any history . As a result , it is highly doubtful that he could save America from skating safely on Iran's thin ice . It can swallow him whole . American war ships are visible to Iranian eyes from their shores . But Iran is a calculating entity . They know when and how to show their sharp teeth . They  smile to bare their strength . And for Persian culture , victimization demands revenge { Qassass} . That is the framework of martyrdom . To Muslims throughout the world , General Qasem Solaimani is a Shaheed { Martyr } . His voice from behind the grave has now become a call for a military response . 

  And what price ? . I reckon that the payor shall be American personnel in that volatile part of the world . Even Israel is now distancing itself from the ugly consequences of Trump's rash actions . Consequences from which Trump is unfortunately shielded by towering ignorance . 

  . Just look at Iran's assets  . First : Iran is a nuclear power . Second : It is comparatively very cohesive . Third : It has a stable command and control decision-making structure . Fourth : Iran has weaponized both Islam and cyber capabilities . Fifth : Neither Saudi Arabia , nor Pakistan , both comparatively fickle regimes , could match Iran's tight discipline . 

  As an analyst , I read unobtrusive signals as a kind of a road map ( khareetah ) . On the shoulders of Solaimani , I read the haloed name " Allah " . In mourning his death by a million Iranis , the masses call him " Hajj Solaimani " . When Ayatollah Khamenie went to console his family , a telling exchange took place : His wife asked that supreme leader a strategic question : " Who will avenge Qasem's killing " ? . The response came loud and clear : " All of us " . 

  And what does " us " mean ? . It means : Iran's might ; Hezbollah militias ; Islamic Jihad auxiliaries parked in Lebanon , Gaza , Syria , and Yemen . These constitute a ring of fire surrounding all adversaries . Causing Netanyahu to distance himself from Trump . A wise strategic move . Why poke a stick into a hornets nest ? . 

  Now to a comparison between the Kingdom of  Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Iran : {A} KSA is a wooden structure ; Iran is a consultative regime ; {B} {KSA} buys billions of dollars of American armaments to be largely operated by non-Saudis ; Iran manufactures most of its weapons ; {C} KSA is largely a family business ; Iran is a nuclear modernizing State ; {D} KSA is keen on proselytizing Wahhabi Islam ( a faith for hire ) ; Iran , sees no difference between Shiism and Sunnism ; {E} KSA buys alliances ; Iran strategizes in conjunction with its alliances ; and {F} In KSA , Bin Salman directly orchestrates a war in Yemen ; Iran trains the Yemenis in self defense . 

  And the US Fifth Fleet is parked in the Gulf . Practically goading Iran's drones monitoring those big ships . At practically  a low cost . Taking advantage of these super charged times ,  KSA and Israel keep on trying to lure America into a losing war against Iran . Both of them are relying on the fear mongering mantra of " The Iranians are coming  "  . That is generally true , largely because of unremitting provocations , the latest of which is the killing of Solaimani on the sovereign soil of Iraq .  

  From the Solaimani episode emerges the latest negative characterization of Donald Trump . While Trump deals with the Iranian government as if it were  a rogue regime , that depiction is now more befitting the American executive presently occupying the White House . Trump's missteps have placed the USA in the cross hairs of Tehran . And the latter party has demonstrated its capability of inflicting real harm on America's personnel in the area  . In that regard , self-defense is Iran's unyielding shield . 

  Tragically , the Trump regime , through Trump's recent address to the nation , has spurned taking an exit ramp made available by Iran . Tehran has declared that its revenge for the Solaimani assassination is at an end . The response of Trump was more sanctions on Iran . History shall reveal that Khamenie is a real Head of State . And that Washington D.C. is presently inhabited by the equivalent of America's Ayatollah . Minus the black shii turbans !! .  

           END .

--

Dr. Yassin El-Ayouty, Esq.
Founder
www.sunsglow.com